Nigeria :Now we have Buhari for Another Four Years

I wrote an article in 2017 titled “Be (Un)happy, Buhari will be here till 2023” https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nigeria-happy-buhari-here-till-2023-collins-onuegbu/ in which I advised the business community to prepare for Buhari being here till 2023. This was despite his failure in his first term to manage the Nigerian economy. My view is that should he win the second term, nothing much will change in his style of governance. In fact, winning will reinforce his belief that he is managing Nigeria just fine and nothing needed to change. My point being that knowing this , business can at least predict the economy till 2023. There will be few surprises so you can plan. And that may sadly be good for the economy. Knowing what to plan for is good. It would be better if the government made it easier to plan around its actions and policies for economic growth.

And He Won

So, he won. I do not think the business community voted for his return. It will be interesting to get some analysis on voter demographics from INEC. I am sure it will show that most people in the business community either stayed away or voted for the opposition. There has been no joy for this community in the past four years. Except the few who still believed the government when it kept blaming its predecessor for the pains Nigeria was going through. Don’t get me wrong. Nigeria has been badly managed for a very long time. Including the years of PDP. And before that the military, which Buhari sadly was part of. But when you win an election, and have stayed four years, blaming every action on your predecessor is a joke taken too far.

But he has won. And is the president of the happy and the unhappy. For those who voted for him and those who did not.

Early Signs of Continuity

Before the election, there were some moments of reality for the ruling party. When they admitted they had not performed well in four years and need another four to show what they can do. But that was election stumping. Since they won, all we have heard from the president was that things were going to be tough for Nigerians in the next four years.

Other than that, the president is well, still the president we know. It will be business as usual.

Will there be Team Overhaul?

Buhari first team was mediocre. From his ministers to advisers, but that was not the biggest issue. There were enough smart people among them that could have made a difference. The buck of that failure of the first four years lay in the table of the president. Yes, he was sick for a while. That was also not the issue. It was more on what the president himself did and did not do. Which modern government stays six months before appointing minsters? I hope with its learning and the time it has between now, and May29, we can have the president overhauling his team and appointing more active hands. And if he is not changing anyone, let us know NOW. I wish he overhauls as a sign that he is aware of his failed first term.

Any Upside for Business?

Business loves predictability. No one could predict the descent Nigeria had in 2016. The great recession. The Naira crash. the lethargy in government. This disorganized the business community. Recovery for this has been excruciating. With many going under in the process and those who did not fail still limping. I am not sure that will happen this time. We know the naira will slide by about 20% in the next one year. It will be uncomfortable. And hopefully it will be orderly. Unlike 2016.

Other than that, most of the indices that should worry business, even if still negative are known. Interest rates. Inflation. If a new CBN governor resumes in June, I doubt if he will upturn the system unless the president says so. Luckily, oil price is holding well. Thanks to the world Trump created.

And if some of the programs in government like PEBEC, Airport infrastructure upgrade and? (what else?) take root, business may breathe a bit easier.

But Not Enough

Nigeria has accelerated into the country with the largest poor population as our economy struggled. Unemployment numbers are frightening. Young Nigerians are matching out of the country. Seeking for greener pastures. The educated ones go to Canada and any other developed country that can use their skills. The not very educated trek across the desert to reach Europe. Those who stay are swelling the ranks of the “Yahoo. Yahoo boys” an omnibus name for internet scam artists who have diversified their business to include other crimes like kidnapping, ritual killing and death for hire. Unemployed young ladies find their own ways to survive. Sometimes debasing themselves in the process.

This is not the time for a government that slept through the first four years of its mandate to sleepwalk for another four years. Something drastic needs to be done. And it must be done to the economy.

A few suggestions:

National Assembly must make laws…

Work with the national assembly and get a leadership that understands the importance of overhauling our business laws. PIB, CAMA, and all other legislation that could improve ease of doing business. We need to target being in the top5 in Ease of doing business in Africa in the next four years. That will require lots of legislating and law making. We cannot afford another four years when the National Assembly is the only opposition. Yes, legislative oversight is necessary to check Buhari dictatorship and arbitrariness. But petulant opposition for the sake of it does not benefit the country.

Revisit our power sector.

The power sector was deregulated by the last government. But little progress has been made in improving power. Part of the problem is that the people that acquired the power assets were not ready to run the entities. Neither did they know what they bought. Most are struggling. More money needs to come into the system to allow the entities rebuild their infrastructure. Government could agree with their co-owners (yes, government still owns large chunk!) to dilute their holdings and bring in financial and operating partners. New funding needs to come into the sector. And it won’t be loan from the Chinese. And cancelling the privatization will set us back a decade.

Airports Infrastructure

Finish the airport upgrade across the country but especially Lagos. And hand over our airports to those who can run it. I used the new Abuja terminal early this year. The airport is sparkling new. But the old habits of those who run it is still there. They will run them down before the government leaves in four years. We need to overhaul our airport system beyond taking Chinese loans to build new terminals. Aviation is critical to Nigeria’s business aspirations. We cannot afford to be a laggard, competing with Ghana.

Wake Up on security

We elected a former general as president four years ago. Some supported him to fight Boko Haram and all the other forces threatening to tear Nigeria apart. Buhari’s performance on security has been anything but inspiring. He has been anything but a competent commander-in-chief. He needs to wake up. His primary responsibility is to secure the citizens of Nigeria. No reason is excuses are needed.

Finally

I wish Buhari well. I want him to do better this next four years. Not for his legacy or any such thing. We are a large nation. A nation of misery. Caused by lack of opportunities. Poverty is ravaging the land. Unemployment is leaving the large youth population desperate. People are living lives that are subpar with their counterparts in Africa, not to talk of the world. His doing well could help put a dent in all that. And make the lives of many Nigerians better and more livable. Especially the poor he so passionately claims to love.